Plunge in youth guilty verdicts follows landmark ruling

The downward trend in NSW mirrors other states such as Victoria with a 10-fold decline and South Australia at five-fold dip.

The steep falls follow a High Court decision in 2016 reaffirming minors under 14 were incapable of criminal responsibility unless proven otherwise.

The decision in the case RP v R - on the legal presumption known as doli incapax - appears to have made it more difficult to convict younger children, the head of the NSW crime statistics agency said.

"The result raises questions about how best to support vulnerable young people who participate in crime at an early age in order to reduce future harm to themself and the community," NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research director Jackie Fitzgerald said.

She said many young offenders do not commit crimes once they are adults, learning from their experience.

But for a small number who do re-offend, more holistic solutions are needed, she said.

"It is important that these individuals receive appropriate interventions, either within the justice system or outside it, to reduce criminal involvement and improve their long-term outcomes," Ms Fitzgerald said.

The study shows the proportion of youth aged 10 to 13 with a proven outcome in the NSW Children's Court fell dramatically over the seven years to 2023, from 76 per cent to 16 per cent.

That was despite the volume of children in that age group charged by police remaining mostly stable over that period.

The study also recorded a notable decline in guilty pleas among the age group, falling from 54 per cent of cases to 14 per cent over the seven years.

The downwards trend was not seen in states where doli incapax has been defined in legislation, such as Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania.

The research comes amid a national debate about youth crime, with Victoria's opposition claiming it is "out of control" and the NSW opposition floating changes to doli incapax and bail laws.