Agriculture Victoria agronomist Dale Grey said the region’s spring was drier, particularly in a band from Yarrawonga across to Barmah, where September and October rainfall fell into the lowest 10 per cent of records.
“The rest of the region sat around decile two to three — still drier than average, but not as extreme,” he said.
While November delivered average rainfall, Mr Grey said it came too late to benefit most northern cropping areas.
“November rain is of no use whatsoever in the north-eastern cropping areas — it’s normally too late,” he said.
“It was good for the upper Murray valleys, but not for broadacre crops.”
The dry spring and varied soil-moisture reserves produced a wide spread of harvest outcomes.
“That north-western section of the north-east had lower soil moisture and lower rainfall, and they really needed a better spring, so their crop yields are below average,” he said.
“As you head further east and into slightly higher rainfall country, yields generally improve.”
Harvest has also been running behind schedule.
“It’s been a very slow start to harvest,” Mr Grey said.
“Canola’s finished, and wheat is still progressing.”
Looking ahead, he said only irrigated crops would be actively growing through summer, while soil-moisture levels for most dryland paddocks were “way down at depth”.
The immediate outlook mirrors Bureau of Meteorology forecasts, with December likely to remain dry.
“Up until the end of December, things are likely to be drier,” Mr Grey said.
“Hopefully people get their harvest off without weather damage.”
From January to March, he said global climate drivers were providing little clarity.
“The majority of models are sitting neutral — could be wetter, drier or average,” he said.
The strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole has decayed, and a weak La Niña is expected to break down in January.
Mr Grey said warm waters in the Coral Sea still held moisture potential, but the ducks were not lining up.
If heavy summer rain does occur, it may create more challenges than benefits.
“It would cause weeds to germinate and ruin standing dry feed,” he said.
Meanwhile, farm water reserves remain a concern.
“A lot of farmers’ dams are less than half full. People will have to watch their water supplies over summer,” he said.
The BoM’s summer forecast shows warmer-than-average days and nights are likely across Victoria, with December rainfall likely to be below average and no clear signal for January or February.
