While the number of bird flu events across Australia has plummeted, conservationists fear vulnerable species are at risk of extinction with the true scale of the outbreak hidden.
The H5N1 strain was first confirmed on home soil on June 19 after a migrating brown skua washed up on a remote beach near Esperance in Western Australia.
As of November 5, some 734 flu events had been reported in birds and mammals.
Cases peaked in August and September but only 45 events were reported nationally in October, according to federal agriculture department data.
Even if infections recede over summer, authorities warn it is a matter of time before the virus bypasses biosecurity measures and breaches commercial poultry farms.
South Australia’s chief vet, Skye Fruean, said no country with a poultry sector had escaped the impact of H5N1.
“Unfortunately, we are expecting it is a matter of when, not if, it gets into poultry,” she said.
“It could happen even in a situation now where we’re getting a small number of cases.
“Unfortunately, you only need one sick wild bird to spread it to one poultry farm for it to kick off … chickens are very, very susceptible."
Commercial poultry farms have strict biosecurity and hygiene measures to protect the $1.37 billion industry, which produces 17 million eggs per day.
On August 12, Australia began tracking bird flu by geographic spread, affected species and patterns rather than counting individual cases.
As a biosecurity system for protecting poultry, Invasive Species Council chief executive Jack Gough said the regime was working exactly as intended.
“But it’s not a system set up to track the impact on wildlife, to then be able to work out the interventions needed,” he said.
“There’s a huge blind spot from governments and bureaucracies about this — the agriculture department has said very clearly our responsibility is to agriculture and to chicken farms.”
As a consequence, Australian species “that go to the heart of who we are … are going to go backwards”, he said.
“Some may be facing extinction-level events because of this.”