Continuing from my previous article, it is my view that we as a community may be at a genuine “tipping point.”
How we respond — and how effectively we articulate and prosecute our political and policy priorities — will be critical.
We cannot change the government, but we can influence public opinion.
The forthcoming Farrer by-election is of national significance. It will attract a level of media scrutiny that may well be unparalleled for a regional electorate.
Farrer has long been regarded as one of the safest conservative seats in Australia. However, the recent resignation of Sussan Ley has transformed what would ordinarily be a routine succession into a contest that may influence the future direction of conservative politics and the Liberal and National Parties more broadly.
When Sussan Ley was first elected to the seat 25 years ago, she did so from relative obscurity and by a margin of just 240 votes.
That election was conducted in a political climate markedly different from today’s environment — gentler and more restrained, a far cry from the highly charged, fast-moving and often polarised landscape in which modern campaigns are now contested.
At this stage, it is unclear what the ballot paper will ultimately look like. It remains uncertain whether the Liberal Party and the National Party will field competing candidates.
For either party to relinquish what has been one of the safest conservative seats in the country for more than three decades appears unlikely.
The electorate has been held successively by Tim Fischer of the National Party and Sussan Ley of the Liberal Party — a continuity that underscores its historical stability.
However, the political environment is no longer settled. One Nation is presently recording increased support in opinion polling and, with the addition of a prominent former National Party figure, may seek to consolidate a protest or disaffected conservative vote.
In addition, there is a highly regarded and popular Independent State Member whose candidacy — should it eventuate — would likely attract a substantial share of the primary vote.
Taken together, these factors suggest that what has traditionally been a predictable contest may, on this occasion, prove considerably more complex.
The prospect of bringing all of these parties together under a coordinated preference arrangement appears, at least at this stage, remote.
The scenario outlined above presents the electorate with a genuine opportunity to bring the most pressing regional issues to the forefront of the national conversation.
If the conservative vote in Albury becomes more fragmented, the surrounding regional centres and smaller communities will carry increased influence.
In a tighter and more competitive contest, the so-called “satellite” communities may well determine the ultimate outcome.
This dynamic creates a rare opening. For the first time in many years, a by-election in Farrer will attract sustained national media attention.
That scrutiny provides an opportunity to elevate the Murray–Darling Basin Plan and its regional consequences into the national press, where they can be examined at a depth and intensity not previously experienced.
The question is whether the community is prepared to use this moment constructively — to articulate clearly, calmly and persuasively how Basin policy is affecting regional economies, employment, investment confidence and long-term sustainability.
If this moment is properly leveraged, it will place real pressure on the current government, which has advanced Basin policy with far too little national scrutiny or accountability.
I hope our community grasps the opportunity we have awaited since 2012 — the opportunity to change direction.
We should draw upon our proud history of contribution to the nation and prosecute the case for reform on the basis of reason, not emotion; facts, not hearsay; and rational, articulate debate — not shouting or personal attacks.
Most importantly, we must demonstrate that a better plan is in the interests of all Australians, not merely a select few.
If the Farrer by-election delivers that scrutiny, it will serve a purpose well beyond the election of a new Member of Parliament.
