MDBA senior director of river operations, Tom Zouch, said the update reflects conditions to the end of October 2025 and outlines how the MDBA is preparing to manage water delivery across the southern Basin this summer and for the remainder of the water year.
“Since the 2025-26 outlook was published in August, inflows to the River Murray System have been similar to the dry scenario while inflows to the Menindee Lakes have been above the wet scenario presented in the original report,” Mr Zouch said.
“This update outlines the likely transfers from upstream storages to manage the system this year.”
The outlook identifies a range of operating scenarios from dry to wet.
The MDBA will continue to monitor conditions, and if it remains dry, we will manage storage volumes to conserve water and meet demands this water year.
“At the beginning of December, the Menindee Lakes were at 69 per cent capacity (1201 gigalitres) compared to 42.9 per cent at the same time last year.”
With inflows receding across the northern basin, the MDBA is balancing operations at the Menindee Lakes in partnership with basin states.
MDBA can access water until lake levels fall to 480 gigalitres, at which point the MDBA is no longer able to call on water for use in the River Murray.
“Unless there is significant rainfall in the northern Basin over the coming months, we may see the 480 gigalitre storage trigger reached in April 2026,” said Mr Zouch.
The MDBA continues to operate in close partnership with NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) and WaterNSW to mitigate water quality and water security risks at Menindee and the lower Darling-Baaka.
Storages in the River Murray System at the beginning of December were sitting in a good position with Hume Dam at 43 per cent (1,280 gigalitres), Dartmouth Dam at 74 per cent (2,850 gigalitres) and Lake Victoria at 90 per cent (607 gigalitres).
The updated outlook confirmed that delivery risks remain low this summer, with sufficient water being held in Lake Victoria to manage deliveries to South Australia and options available to manage the risk of delivery shortfalls downstream of Barmah.
Under the expected scenarios, the MDBA believes it is in a good position to meet anticipated water delivery needs for the rest of this water year.
The River Murray System Annual Operating Outlook – End of October 2025 update is available at under the publications section at www.mdba.gov.au.
The MDBA’s Weekly Report is also available under the same tab - in the data and dashboards section.
