Paris and Noumea have engaged in intense negotiations since deadly and costly riots in May 2024.
The Melanesian nation is split on the thorny issue of independence, with many indigenous Kanaks hoping for self-determination, and others wanting stronger ties to its colonial power France.
Months of diplomacy, which have drawn in President Emmanuel Macron, have yielded two agreements: the Bougival Accord last July, and the Elysee-Oudinot Accord in January.
The deals fall short of independence, keeping New Caledonia within the French realm.
Instead, more autonomy is promised for New Caledonia, along with recognition of Kanak identity and a dual nationality, and more funding from Paris for healthcare and social security, and to prop up a budget hit hard during the pandemic.
France's Ambassador to Australia, Pierre-Andre Imbert, told AAP talks were centred on "trying to find a way that respects the willingness of the New Caledonian people and to address the different issues this territory has".
The issue looms large over the region, with Australian and New Zealand diplomats engaged behind the scenes, and a Pacific Islands Forum task force also commissioned in 2024.
Now, after a compromise by political leaders on both sides, the pact needs assent from both MPs and the people.
As a complicated legal instrument, it needs several ticks from France's parliament, and also to succeed at a referendum in New Caledonia.
The first French hurdle was cleared in February, when the Senate approved the new accords.
A lower house vote is due in April, and then - if New Caledonia's citizens pass the referendum due in winter - a combined French parliamentary vote will take place around October.
"That's democracy," Mr Imbert said, who declined to say whether he was confident of passage.
"It's the responsibility of each party to determine what they want .. I have no crystal ball as to where we are."
Overseas France Minister Naïma Moutchou's argument to French MPs is to honour the lengthy negotiations.
"If it's not the Bougival process, negotiated by five out of six (New Caledonian political parties) then what is the alternative? Today, there isn't one," she said in February, as reported by Les Nouvelles Caledoniennes newspaper.
Reports from New Caledonia suggest support for a 'oui' vote in the referendum - originally slated for March but now likely to occur in winter - is waning as time drags on.
What is clear is that should either French lawmakers or New Caledonians scuttle the deal, another resolution could be a long time coming.
Mr Imbert said French negotiators had done "a tremendous job trying to find a way to address the different points raised by the different parties in New Caledonia".
"From the beginning there is a clear willingness of being able to give more competencies to the local elected people in New Caledonia," he said.
"You have almost 300,000 citizens, and so they and we find a way to have a shared future."
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