The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics has released a report which found higher living costs and decreased wages had a stronger link to rates of petrol theft than fluctuating prices.
The bureau launched their probe after a sharp increase in petrol theft post-COVID-19 despite stable fuel prices, executive director Jackie Fitzgerald told AAP.
"(Cost of living pressure) tends to mount up over time, and that will encourage people to to commit these kind of crimes, but they can weather a short-term fluctuation," she said.
"It's not just a criminal subclass that is involved in these matters. It's kind of bleeding into other parts of the community."
According to the report, a one per cent higher petrol price was associated with a one per cent increase in thefts.
By comparison, a one per cent spike in living costs was linked to a six per cent increase in thefts.
Petrol thieves are also rather likely to get away with the crime, Ms Fitzgerald said, with police only laying charges in four to eight per cent of cases.
"People are more likely to engage in crime if they think they can get away with it," she said.
"There's clearly some people … whose economic situation is sufficiently dire that they will start to consider those options."
Rates of petrol theft in NSW peaked in 2024 - even higher than when the price of fuel skyrocketed in early 2026 due to the Iran-Israel-US conflict.
Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association chief executive officer Rowan Lee told AAP the spike in thefts had been recorded nationwide, with no single state or territory standing out.
There had also been a rise in aggression towards service station staff, the association said.
Ms Fitzgerald said requiring motorists to pay before filling up could help prevent thefts.
"It's inconvenient for people, but ... this study suggests you could turn on those kind of strategies when the conditions are ripe for an increase in petrol theft," she said.
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