World

NZ's ruling coalition holds razor-thin majority in poll

By AAP Newswire

Aug 7, 2026

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon — Christopher Luxon's preferred NZ PM rating rose by more than four percentage points in the poll. -AAP Image

New Zealand's ruling centre-right coalition may retain a razor-thin parliamentary majority if an election were held now, a new poll has revealed..

Hold tight - we’re checking permissions before loading more content

But a surge for the new centrist Opportunity Party could reshape coalition talks ahead of the November ‌vote.

The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll said the governing bloc of the centre-right National Party, New Zealand First ‌and ACT could win 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, giving it a majority of one seat.

The opposition Labour party was projected to lose five seats, with much of that support appearing to shift to the Opportunity Party, which could win eight seats.

Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and ‌Opportunity could win ‌a combined ⁠59 seats.

Support for the Opportunity Party rose to 6.1 per cent, the first time it has exceeded the five per cent threshold required for parliamentary representation. If it clears the threshold at the election, it would become the first new party to enter parliament in more than two decades.

The poll surveyed 1000 voters by phone and online between Saturday and Tuesday.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, the ⁠leader of the National party, has ruled out working ‌with the Opportunity Party, saying its policies, particularly on tax, are incompatible with National's approach.

That could narrow his party's options despite ‌its stated willingness to work across political divides.

Luxon's preferred prime minister rating rose by more than four percentage points in the poll, leaving him the country's most popular choice for leader.

However, the poll was conducted before Luxon said on Thursday he was open to a referendum on NZ's German-style Mixed Member Proportional electoral system, known as MMP.

The comments exposed ‌another point of tension within the coalition and drew criticism from New Zealand First and ACT, which have also clashed with National on economic and minority issues.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters described the proposal as "inexplicable", while ACT said it would oppose such a move.

NZ adopted MMP in 1996 after a review found smaller parties were disadvantaged under the previous first-past-the-post system.

Voters backed retaining MMP in a 2011 ⁠referendum, with 58 per cent supporting the electoral system.